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East Midlands Chamber News

Double-Dip Recession Didn't Happen Says ONS

Britain did not suffer a double-dip recession according to revised figures released by the Office for National Statsitics.

The UK economy through 2012 was 'flat' according to the ONS, which means it didn't suffer two consecutive months of contraction, the way recession is determined.

In the first quarter of 2013 the economy grew by 0.3 per cent, the ONS had previously announced. It has not revised that figure.

Four out of the preceding five quarters saw negative quarterly growth rates but over the period since the third quarter of 2011 the economy has expanded by 0.4 per cent.

Excluding the oil and gas sector, total growth has been 0.6 per cent.

"Although there has been much talk of a 'double dip' recession, economic growth is most realistically described as being broadly flat, or at best rising very slowly, during the past two and a half years," a statement from the ONS said, "

The annual average growth rate since mid-2010 is only 0.5 per cent compared with annual growth of three per cent a year in the decade before the 2008 recession.

The period since the end of the 2008-2009 economic downturn is characterised by steady growth in the output of the services sector, while construction output and industrial production have
fallen. Within the latter, mining and quarrying output has fallen sharply.

The upward momentum of the labour market during 2012 faltered in the latest period, while the squeeze on real earnings growth intensified further.

Compared with previous recessions, growth in real GDP per capita has been weaker than that in aggregate GDP. The usual driver of growth in the early stages of the recovery – households’
spending – has been more muted during the latest period than following previous recessions.

The contribution of net overseas trade to GDP growth has been no stronger than in previous recessions despite the benefit of sterling’s depreciation during 2007 and 2008.