Friday, 5 June 2015
BCC downgrades growth forecast but wages to rise
The British Chambers of Commerce has downgraded its UK GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 2.7% to 2.3%, following weaker than expected growth at the start of the year.
However, it believes the slowdown is temporary and the prospects over the medium term remain steady, with GDP growth predicted to be 2.6% in 2016 and 2017.
John Longworth, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "It is always disappointing when we have to downgrade our growth forecast but the unexpectedly low figures from the ONS on Q1 2015 make it unavoidable.
"While this slowdown will serve as a warning about the strength of our economic recovery, we believe the UK will secure steady growth in the years to come."
George Cowcher, Chief Executive of East Midlands Chamber (Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire) said it was important that the figures were considered in context and did not become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
"Business confidence remains high, particularly across the East Midlands, despite the slight national downturn reported by the BCC. The pre-election doubt has gone but there is still uncertainty over the UK's ties to Europe. Business does not like uncertainty. It is imperative the Government does everything it can to give business absolute confidence to continue to drive growth, create jobs and pursue new clients overseas to ensure a positive balance of trade.
"Business doesn't want to hear that the economy is slowing down, it creates doubt and uncertainty, it stalls investment and the warning becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. What is important in this latest information from the BCC is that it believes the slowdown to be temporary and that growth is expected to remain steady over the medium term."
Key elements of the BCC economic forecast include:
Earnings and unemployment
- The BCC forecasts total earnings growth (total pay including bonuses) of 2.4% in 2015, 4.0% in 2016 and 4.5% in 2017.
- UK unemployment, including youth unemployment, is expected to fall in each of the next three years. However, by 2018, youth unemployment will still be high at 13% - almost three times the overall unemployment rate.
Trade deficit and exports
- The BCC forecasts the real net trade deficit will rise in 2015, increasing from 2.7% to 2.9%.
- Increases in real exports are predicted of 3.6% in 2015, 2.0% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017. For real imports the BCC predicts increases of 4.1% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017.
- Business investment is volatile but will remain relatively strong with 4.4% growth in 2015. However, this is lower than the 7.5% in 2014.
- The BCC forecasts an increase in UK official interest rates is a year away, with a rise to 0.75% in Q2 2016. Rates will then be subject to small, incremental rises reaching 1.75% in Q4 2017.
Reflecting on the overall economic forecast, John Longworth said: "The Government should be unapologetic in supporting British businesses and setting the regulatory and business finance systems to help them thrive. I want this to be the Parliament of growth. To deliver that we have to help businesses get the access to finance they need, and make a serious investment in our transport, digital and energy infrastructure. If we get these things right, British businesses will have the world as their oyster."
David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC, said: “In spite of the downgrading of our 2015 growth forecast, UK prospects remain solid overall. The slowdown this year is likely to be temporary. Earlier falls in oil, food and other commodity prices continue to support UK growth, and Britain’s flexible and vibrant labour market is a major source of strength for our economy.
"International comparisons also show the UK is in a good position. In 2014, the UK grew faster than other G7 economies. Our new forecast suggests that we will remain near the top of the G7 league table over the next three years.
“But the UK recovery continues to face obstacles. Globally, confidence is too dependent on abnormally low interest rates and huge quantitative easing programmes. In spite of better eurozone prospects, a Greek default could trigger a new crisis, and, of course, the two largest global economies - the US and China - are experiencing slowdowns.
"Domestically, UK growth is relying unduly on consumer spending. Progress towards rebalancing the economy towards exports has been inadequate and the real trade deficit continues to get worse. This is troubling, especially at a time when we are carrying such a heavy current account deficit.
"The UK’s ability to generate tax revenues has worsened, due to big falls in oil and gas output and lower profits of UK banks. We will have to adjust to this harsher and more difficult reality. It is therefore vital that we focus on policies that support higher productivity and a strong recovery in exports, while persevering with the necessary and difficult job of cutting the fiscal deficit."
Other elements from the economic forecast:
Main components of demand
- We forecast a slight upturn in household consumption growth to 2.6% in 2015, before easing to 2.4% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017.
- UK business investment rose by 7.5% in 2014, but in Q1 2015 was only 3.7% higher than in Q1 2014. We are predicting business investment growth of 4.4% in 2015, 7.2% in 2016, and 7.4% in 2017.
- Our forecast is that the real net trade deficit will rise from 2.7% of GDP in 2014 to 2.9% in 2015 and then fall to 2.5% in 2017.
- Our forecast is that the UK current account deficit will improve gradually, from 5.5% of GDP in 2014 to 3.7% of GDP in 2017, this is still a very high and potentially risky shortfall.
- Our forecast envisages increases in real exports of 3.6% in 2015, 2.0% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017. For real imports we predict increases of 4.1% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017.
- Quarterly GDP growth, after slowing to 0.3% in Q1 2015, is likely to accelerate to 0.7% in Q2 2015, and then stabilise at a trend rate of just over 0.6% per quarter from Q3 2015 onwards.
Main sectors of the economy
- Service sector output is forecast to grow by 2.8% in 2015%, 2.8% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017. The share of services in total UK output is likely to rise a little further in the next few years.
- For total industrial output, we are forecasting growth of 0.9% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017.
- We are forecasting full-year manufacturing growth of 1.4% in 2015, 2.0% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017.
- Our forecast envisages growth in construction output of -0.7% in 2015, 2.2% in 2016 & 2.1% in 2017.
Official interest rates
- We expect the first increase in UK official interest rates, to 0.75%, in Q2 2016, one quarter later than we previously predicted.
- We expect to see incremental rises thereafter before reaching 1.75% in Q4 2017.
Earnings and unemployment
- We now predict that total earnings growth (total pay including bonuses) will average 2.4% in 2015, 4.0% in 2016 and 4.5% in 2017.
- The UK unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 5.5% in Q1 2015, to 5.0% in Q1 2016, 4.7% in Q1 2017 and 4.6% in Q1 2018.
- We are forecasting total UK unemployment to fall from 1.83m in Q1 2015, to 1.63m in Q1 2016, 1.58m in Q1 2017, and 1.54m in Q1 2018 - a net fall in the jobless total of 283,000 over the next 3 years.
- We are forecasting that total UK youth unemployment (people aged 16 to 24) will fall from 736,000 (a jobless rate of 15.9%) in Q1 2015, to 601,000 (a jobless rate of 13.0%) in Q1 2018, a net fall of 135,000.
- Public sector net borrowing in the full financial year 2014/15 was £2.5bn lower than the OBR predicted in the March 2015 Budget. In 2015/16, we also expect slightly lower borrowing than the OBR predicted in the Budget.
- However, the OBR’s timetable for subsequent years is still slightly too ambitious in our view. While the OBR is forecasting that UK public sector net borrowing would move into a small surplus in 2018/19, our view is that achieving this aim this would take one year longer (2019/20).
- In annual average terms, we are forecasting annual CPI inflation at 0.2% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017. In Q1 we predicted 0.3% in 2015, 1.7% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017.